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An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

Autor: Eric Lybeck

Número de Páginas: 101

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a...

Resumen Completo - Antifragil (Antifragile) - Basado En El Libro De Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Autor: Bookify Editorial

Número de Páginas: 66

RESUMEN COMPLETO DE ANTIFRÁGIL (ANTIFRAGILE) – BASADO EN EL LIBRO DE NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB RESUMEN ESCRITO POR: BOOKIFY EDITORIAL ¿Te sientes frágil y vulnerable? ¿No logras que tu empresa se supere y triunfe? ¿Necesitas hacer algo para fortalecerte? Aplica en tu vida y en tu empresa las reglas de lo "antifrágil" y caminarás hacia el éxito. ACERCA DEL LIBRO ORIGINAL: A partir de la oposición entre los conceptos "frágil" y "antifrágil", el autor conduce al lector al reconocimiento de cómo sus actitudes lo vuelven frágil. El caos y la incertidumbre son parte de la vida humana. Y no es malo que ocurran. Todas las personas en algún momento estamos expuestos a accidentes, desastres naturales, colapsos financieros. No podemos evitarlos, pero sí podemos utilizarlos en nuestro beneficio si somos capaces de volverlos impulsores de la necesaria antifragilidad que genera progreso. Una interesante perspectiva de gran ayuda para encarar la vida actual, tanto a nivel personal como empresarial. ¿QUÉ APRENDERÁS? Entenderás dos conceptos claves para conocerte a ti mismo, para analizar tu empresa y para mirar de una forma diferente al mundo: fragilidad y antifragilidad...

Nassim N. Taleb - Le sceptique penseur de l'incertitude

Autor: Hugo Gaillard , Soufyane Frimousse , François Cazals

Número de Páginas: 9

Dans ce texte nous discutons de la contribution de l’auteur aux sciences de gestion et du management. Il peut paraître étonnant au lecteur avisé de trouver Taleb dans un ouvrage sur les grands auteurs aux frontières du management. Cela dit, il nous semble que sa contribution est nourrie de multiples aspirations, à la fois philosophiques, mathématiques, mais aussi issues de son expérience de trading. Au carrefour de ces angles de vue, se trouve une critique fondamentale de la rationalité, mais aussi de la conception mainstream de l’incertitude. Cela fera l’objet de notre première partie. Ensuite, l’auteur se distingue aussi par l’usage de métaphores qui flirtent parfois avec la fiction, et offrent un modèle de travaux à impact, popularisés dans le monde entier. Ceci n’est pas sans comprendre certaines limites. Après en avoir discuté dans la seconde partie de notre développement, nous conclurons sur les apports majeurs de l’oeuvre de Nassim Nicholas Taleb aux sciences de gestion et du management Loin de prétendre à l’exhaustivité, ce texte pose quelques éléments de mise avant de cette contribution, principalement dans le domaine des stratégies...

Oil, electricity and Taleb’s ‚Black Swan‘

Autor: Ullrich Müller

Número de Páginas: 63

Master's Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: excellent, Corvinus University Budapest (School of Management), language: English, abstract: The paper is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a popular point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. Based on his work, the paper first defines the concept of the ‘Black Swan’ as an extremely unlikely high impact event, which is evidently unpredictable ex ante; however, is regarded as potentially avoidable by most observers ex post facto. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevantly many events that makes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, in its second part the paper focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver...